“We never could have seen that coming.”
(Political wargaming veterans are grinning right now.)
In the nearly 20 years i’ve headed up the team here at MESH, i’ve seen a lot of things happen to my life science clients.
Unfortunately, they’re often ill-equipped with real marketing strategies and frameworks with which to respond to bigger picture issues, like competition.
Let’s take a quick look at fictional BioCo and the very real situation they faced.
(The following is a “scrubbed” version of actual, documented events. Names and immaterial details have been changed for obvious reasons. BioCo was NOT my client and this story is only for use as a demonstration of the value of using political wargaming in life sciences.)
BioCo, a biotech company specializing in gene therapies for rare diseases, is on the cusp of launching its flagship product, GeneCure, after years of R&D and clinical trials.
GeneCure promises to treat a previously untreatable rare genetic disorder, and the company has invested heavily in its development, with projections showing it could become a blockbuster product.
However, as the launch date approaches, BioCo encounters unexpected turbulence. A competing biotech firm, GenNova, announces a breakthrough in a similar gene therapy, claiming superior efficacy and a lower cost of production.
This announcement comes just as BioCo is finalizing its go-to-market strategy, shaking investor confidence and raising doubts within BioCo’s leadership team.
The Threat
GenNova’s therapy is not only positioned as more effective but is also scheduled for regulatory review ahead of GeneCure.
If GenNova secures approval first, it could capture significant market share and potentially render GeneCure obsolete. Additionally, rumors circulate that GenNova is in talks with a major pharmaceutical company for a global distribution partnership, which would give them a massive advantage in terms of reach and resources.
BioCo’s leadership is now faced with multiple challenges:
• Regulatory Risks: If GenNova’s product is approved first, GeneCure might face heightened scrutiny or delayed approval, particularly if safety concerns arise during its review.
• Market Risks: Early market entry by GenNova could saturate the market, limiting BioCo’s potential customer base and making it difficult to achieve sales targets.
• Competitive Risks: The partnership between GenNova and a major pharmaceutical player could lead to aggressive pricing strategies, marketing campaigns, and rapid international expansion, all of which could leave BioCo struggling to compete.
Adapting Political Wargaming to Life Science Marketing
Given the gravity of the situation, it’s clear that BioCo needs to engage in something like political wargaming (more on the in a minute) to prepare for a range of possible outcomes. The stakes are high: GeneCure represents a significant portion of BioCo’s future revenue projections, and any misstep could have catastrophic consequences for the company’s financial stability and reputation.
What is Political Wargaming?
Peter Perla, author of “The Art of Wargaming”, defines it as: “A warfare model or simulation that does not involve the operations of actual forces, in which the flow of events affects and is affected by decisions made during the course of those events by players representing the opposing sides.”
Wargaming marketing campaigns can indeed draw valuable lessons from political wargaming sessions, as both fields involve anticipating complex scenarios and strategizing for uncertain outcomes.
Here are some parallels and insights life science marketers can learn from political wargaming:
1. Scenario Planning: In political wargaming, multiple scenarios are created to simulate different potential outcomes, such as election results, policy impacts, or international responses. Marketers can use this approach to plan for various market conditions, customer reactions, or competitor moves. By preparing for different outcomes, marketers can develop more resilient and adaptive strategies.
2. Stakeholder Analysis: Political wargaming often involves understanding the motives, strengths, and weaknesses of different stakeholders (e.g., voters, interest groups, foreign governments). Marketers can apply this by analyzing key market players, customer segments, and influencers, considering how each might respond to a campaign and adjusting their tactics accordingly.
3. Crisis Management: Political wargaming frequently addresses how to manage crises or unexpected events. Marketers can similarly simulate potential PR crises, product failures, or negative customer feedback to prepare contingency plans and ensure rapid, effective responses when needed.
4. Message Testing: In politics, wargaming often includes testing different messages to see which resonates best with target audiences. Marketers can do the same by using A/B testing, focus groups, or simulations to refine campaign messages, ensuring they are persuasive and aligned with audience expectations.
5. Adapting to Uncertainty: Political environments are inherently uncertain, and wargaming helps leaders make decisions in the face of ambiguity. Marketers can embrace this by using wargaming to anticipate market shifts, economic changes, or new regulations, enabling them to pivot their strategies as needed.
6. Collaboration and Role-Playing: Political wargaming often involves participants taking on different roles to understand various perspectives. Marketers can adopt this by having team members role-play as customers, competitors, or even internal departments to gain a more holistic view of how a campaign might unfold and where it might face resistance.
By incorporating these political wargaming techniques, marketers can imprvoe their ability to foresee challenges, adapt to change, and craft more robust, successful campaigns.
Scenario Planning for the Win
Scenario planning is a strategic tool that allows organizations to anticipate and prepare for various future conditions. Unlike traditional forecasting, which often relies on a single prediction of the future, scenario planning embraces uncertainty by developing multiple plausible scenarios, each representing a different set of circumstances that could affect the organization.
The process involves several key steps:
1. Identify Key Drivers of Change: This step involves pinpointing the major forces that could influence the future environment. These might include economic trends, technological advancements, regulatory changes, competitive dynamics, and customer behaviors.
2. Define Critical Uncertainties: After identifying key drivers, the next step is to determine which of these are most uncertain and have the most significant impact. These are the “critical uncertainties” that form the basis of the different scenarios.
3. Develop a Range of Scenarios: Based on the critical uncertainties, create a set of distinct scenarios that represent different futures. These should be both plausible and diverse, covering a broad spectrum of potential outcomes.
4. Analyze the Implications: For each scenario, assess how it would impact the organization. This includes evaluating opportunities, risks, and challenges, as well as how the organization might respond in each case.
5. Develop Contingency Plans: With the scenarios in mind, organizations can create strategies and action plans that are flexible and adaptive. This preparation ensures that they can respond effectively no matter which scenario unfolds.
6. Monitor Early Indicators: Finally, organizations should identify early indicators that suggest which scenario might be emerging. This allows for timely adjustments to strategies as the future becomes clearer.
Example: BioCo Scenario Planning
Let’s consider a hypothetical biotech company, BioCo, which specializes in developing innovative gene therapies for rare diseases. BioCo is preparing to launch a new product and wants to use scenario planning to anticipate how the market and broader environment might evolve.
Step 1: Identify Key Drivers of Change
BioCo identifies several key drivers that could influence its market:
• Regulatory Environment: Changes in FDA approval processes or international regulatory standards.
• Technological Advances: New technologies that could either enhance or disrupt gene therapy development.
• Competitor Actions: Competitors launching similar products or forming strategic partnerships.
• Economic Conditions: Economic downturns that might limit healthcare spending or investment in biotech.
• Patient Advocacy: Growing influence of patient advocacy groups in treatment adoption and policy.
Step 2: Define Critical Uncertainties
From the list of drivers, BioCo focuses on two critical uncertainties:
• Regulatory Stringency: Whether regulatory bodies will become more or less stringent in approving new gene therapies.
• Market Acceptance: Whether the market (including patients, healthcare providers, and payers) will rapidly adopt gene therapies or remain skeptical due to high costs and unknown long-term effects.
Step 3: Develop a Range of Scenarios
BioCo develops four scenarios based on the intersection of these critical uncertainties:
1. Scenario 1: Green Light Boom
Regulatory bodies become less stringent, fast-tracking approvals, and the market enthusiastically adopts gene therapies. BioCo experiences rapid growth and strong market penetration.
2. Scenario 2: Cautious Optimism
Regulations remain stringent, but the market slowly warms to gene therapies as more data becomes available. Growth is steady but slower, requiring BioCo to focus on education and evidence-building.
3. Scenario 3: Regulatory Clampdown
Regulations tighten significantly, slowing down approvals. The market remains hesitant due to high costs and uncertainty. BioCo faces delays and must invest heavily in lobbying and regulatory compliance.
4. Scenario 4: Market Rejection
Despite a favorable regulatory environment, the market rejects gene therapies due to skepticism and high costs. BioCo must pivot its strategy, perhaps by lowering prices or targeting niche markets.
Step 4: Analyze the Implications
For each scenario, BioCo considers:
• Opportunities: In Scenario 1, rapid market adoption could lead to expansion into new markets. In Scenario 4, the need to pivot might open up opportunities for cost-reduction innovations.
• Risks: In Scenario 3, regulatory delays could cause financial strain. In Scenario 2, the slow adoption might require additional investment in marketing and education.
Step 5: Develop Contingency Plans
BioCo creates strategies for each scenario:
• Scenario 1: Ramp up production capacity and explore international markets.
• Scenario 2: Invest in long-term clinical trials and patient education programs.
• Scenario 3: Strengthen regulatory affairs and lobbying efforts, and build partnerships to share costs.
• Scenario 4: Explore alternative pricing models and consider partnerships with payers or patient advocacy groups.
Step 6: Monitor Early Indicators
BioCo identifies key indicators to monitor:
• Regulatory Environment: Changes in FDA approval timelines or new guidelines.
• Market Sentiment: Adoption rates of similar therapies, feedback from key opinion leaders, and patient advocacy group activities.
By using scenario planning, BioCo is better prepared to navigate the uncertainties of launching a new gene therapy. This approach allows them to stay flexible and responsive, ready to adjust their strategies based on how the future unfolds.
Inspired by Political Wargaming, or Business As Usual?
Taking a page out of political wargaming sounds great, but today’s marketing team are strapped for resources, and this can seem like a pipe dream.
Here’s the catch, doing some basic wargaming can provide you with the data you need to drive additional resources.
If you can show data on what’s happening in market and what competitors are doing, you can often influence decision makers to take action.
But not always. 😉
